Giant real estate plunge? Foreclosures everywhere?
Readers of my news page at dunnanddunnrealtors.com will have read this already:
"Just a quick note: Compared to the same month last year, King County homes and condos were up 9%, and Snohomish County combined homes and condos were up 4.27%. Volumes were about as they have been, slightly off from the same month a year ago."
As usual, the gloomy headlines about plunging real estate prices are about somewhere else. I listed and sold a condo in west Seattle for $216,500 since my last posting on this blog. It was less than 600 square feet! I also listed and sold a smallish 2 bedroom condo in Lynnwood for about $220,000 since then, as well. Both sold after less than a week on the market. If this is a slow market, I'll take it any day.
After reading a dramatic story about soaring delinquency rates in states selected to make dramatic headlines, such as Georgia and California, I went looking for the much less "interesting" facts for our market, and found, (Click here to read about Washington state mortgage foreclosures in the Seattle Times.) This article says that we rank 47th. of the states in delinquencies, and 49th. in foreclosure activity in Washington State. Let's face it: This would make a pretty boring headline.
"Just a quick note: Compared to the same month last year, King County homes and condos were up 9%, and Snohomish County combined homes and condos were up 4.27%. Volumes were about as they have been, slightly off from the same month a year ago."
As usual, the gloomy headlines about plunging real estate prices are about somewhere else. I listed and sold a condo in west Seattle for $216,500 since my last posting on this blog. It was less than 600 square feet! I also listed and sold a smallish 2 bedroom condo in Lynnwood for about $220,000 since then, as well. Both sold after less than a week on the market. If this is a slow market, I'll take it any day.
After reading a dramatic story about soaring delinquency rates in states selected to make dramatic headlines, such as Georgia and California, I went looking for the much less "interesting" facts for our market, and found, (Click here to read about Washington state mortgage foreclosures in the Seattle Times.) This article says that we rank 47th. of the states in delinquencies, and 49th. in foreclosure activity in Washington State. Let's face it: This would make a pretty boring headline.
Labels: Foreclosures real estate seattle
posted by Tim Dunn at 9:59 AM
9 Comments:
median sales prices were up I assume you mean. Median prices don't really mean all that much.
Why didn't you mention the West Seattle Condo that has been sitting for 80+ days and a month since a 20K+ price drop? That wouldn't have been a good example?
Dear Anonymous,
I notice that you make no effort to defend you claim that "median prices don't really mean all that much," nor do you propose an alternative measure. No wonder your post is anonymous. I wouldn't want to sign my name to that post, either.
Dear Onlooker, my examples are not meant to prove a thesis, but rather illustrate it, as I have pointed out that annecdotes don't prove a general thesis. Statistics, rather than anecdotes, are necessary to demonstrate the direction of a market.
I have had overpriced listings, and of course they don't sell until the owners begin to loose their starry-eyed optimism about their properties being worth more than comparable available properties.
People who blame Realtors for home pricing don't seem to realize that Realtors don't set home prices--buyers and sellers do. In general, most buyers expect outrageous bargains, and sellers expect to be outrageously overpaid for their properties.
This excess of optimism is usually opposed by Realtors, who know better, and who often get fired for being the bearers of the unwelcome news that the client is being excessively optimistic.
Two individual examples and then nothing for weeks?
"Statistics, rather than anecdotes, are necessary to demonstrate the direction of a market."
Here are some statistics:
"King County’s median single-family home price last month was $450,000. That’s less than March’s $457,500 median and almost $32,000 less than this year’s high of $481,750, set in July…"
"Offers were accepted last month on 1,541 King County houses — a 32 percent drop from the numbers in September 2006. Likewise, the county’s condominium offerings were up (a startling 74.2 percent, including new condos), while pending sales were down 26.7 percent."
If you believe there is no bubble in Seattle and that prices will not go down (why would they if there is no bubble?) please go on record on this blog and state that.
Before you pull the "you're anonymous and silly" nonsense, please remember that this is your blog and you chose to go on record with your statements about the real estate market. I'm making no statements either way, and so do not need to give my real name.
So, how are things going to look like a year from now?
Mr. Dunn, you haven't posted in several months. Wondering what your assessment of the recent local real estate data is.
Hi, Anon
I haven't posted because I have been very ill. My physicians-one each of a Urologist, a Gastroenterologist, a Surgeon, and a Nephrologist seemed rather surprised that I survived.
I don't think that anything very interesting has happened in Seattle real estate in the last couple of months. The market has slowed slightly, but is still in slightly positive territory compared to a year ago. Inventory is still high, and home sellers are still shrugging off the fact of high inventory rather than lowering prices (by much.)
I don't own a crystal ball, but still anticipate modest declines rather than a large drop in local home prices. I would expect the market to return to climbing mode after maybe 2 years, though perhaps somewhat chastened and therefore somewhat slower price growth than we saw at the giddy highs of a couple of years ago.
In other words, my expectations for our real estate market haven't changed. I never did view our real estate market as being a lottery, and continue to view this as being a good time to buy a home if it is the home you want to live in.
I continue to believe that it can be a good investment market for those with a high earned income who can get a high-leverage loan, assuming that they are still available, and that the investor is buying rental properties and will receive income tax advantages based on their high earned income.
it's interesting , especially your point of view in the middle paragraphs . thank for your sharing
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