How is Seattle's real estate market compared to others?

Quite well-See:

Article giving the market declines in various US residential real estate markets

More snooseworthy real estate news

Seattle home prices are off 3.6% from a year ago, and Snohomish County prices are off 7.2% from a year ago. Sales volume continues to be off by about 1/3 from a year ago. If this is a market crash, then it's like saying the sky is falling- by about 1/16" of an inch. Seattlebubble.com hysteria looks more amusing than ever. People who followed 'the Tim's' advice are looking more than ever like those who trickle, one by one, out of an 'End of the World' compound after the world fails to end.

No news is good news

Well, not much has changed since my last post. Some bubble believers are still hoping for vindication, and the market isn't giving them encouragement. They remind me of people whose interpretation of the Bible causes them to believe in the end of the world, and so retire to a cave to await the millenium. I suppose that some are sheepishly trickling out of the cave, one by one, hoping not to be noticed.

Seattle home prices are down about 1 1/2% from a year ago, and Snohomish County home prices are down by about 5 1/2%. The number of homes sold continue to be off by about 1/3 from a year ago.

Meanwhile, high oil prices are fueling inflation, proving once again that those who prefer hard assets, such as real estate, will be the long term winners in the economic sweepstakes, as mortgage lenders get repaid in fixed dollar amounts continually dwindling in value.

Snohomish Co. loses a little ground, King Co. very slightly up

Combined Condo/ SFD home prices in King County were 1.38 percent higher than a year ago, and Snohomish County prices were off by 6.93% from a year ago. Volume (number of houses sold) is off by about 1/3 for both counties.

The Seattle P.I. says, "in Washington, 2.35 percent of mortgages were at least 30 days past due in the first quarter, up from 2.25 percent in the prior quarter and 1.78 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to the Wall Street Journal.......The national rate was 4.46 percent in the first quarter, up from 3.98 percent in the prior quarter and 2.92 percent in the first quarter of 2007."

I'd say we are still doing quite well compared to the rest of the country, and not so bad even without that added perspective. 'Bubbleheads,' have little to cheer about--there is still no sign of a tunnel at the end of the light. A breather in home prices hardly constitutes the huge crash the Seattle Bubble site's devotees and author have so confidently predicted for so long.

They keep trying to justify gloom, and as usual, they find lots to be gloomy about, but somehow, no actual home price crash in our area manifests itself. They remind me of the cartoon I saw somewhere long ago where two buzzards having a slow spell converse. One says to the other, "Patience my a--, I'm gonna kill something!" Well, good luck with that, 'Bubbleheads.'

Another uneventful month passes in Seattle real estate

There is very little change in prices compared to a year ago, with King County Condo/Residential prices up .5%, and Snohomish Condo/Residential prices down about 1 1/2%. Volume is down by about 1/3, perhaps implying that buyers are still spooked about the market, and sellers aren't budging, or perhaps it is just too hard for many buyers to get financing with the mortgage markets in turmoil.

Pierce County, which I don't usualy cover, is down by almost -8%, and Kitsap, which is just across the Tacoma Narrows Bridge from Pierce, is down by even more, at -11+%. Volumes are down in both counties, as well. (All figures are for combined SFD / Condo closed sales.)

Stable prices

They say no news is good news. There is very little change in prices compared to a year ago, with King County Condo/Residential prices up 4%, and Snohomish Condo/Residential prices down about 1 1/2%. Volume is up abut 25% in King County, and about 10% in Snohomish Co. In the stock market, upticks in volume are said to confirm prices, meaning that a lot of people consider them reasonable, so I'd say that this is a pretty stable market.

Inflation and home prices

Do home prices increase as the dollar declines in value? In the long run, of course they do. Inflation is simply the decline in the value of a currency compared to the prices paid for goods and services. Check out these charts, and see if you see any correlation:

Increase in home prices

Decline in value of dollar (Inflation)



Why do I mention this? The way the Fed is slashing interest rates reminds me of old Western movies in which people on a train fleeing an enemy chop up and burn the furniture in the passsenger cars to supply the steam engine with fuel. I can't think of a surer way to increase inflation.

"Reality" is unreal

Apparently, recent reports regarding foreclosures in our area were greatly exaggerated because the reporting company was counting a number of filings twice!

See: From the Seattle P.I.